Macro Risk Radar · updated hourly during US market hours

What is the biggest risk in the market right now?

Twelve macro risk factors, each scored 0 to 100 from Fed, Treasury, credit, volatility and positioning data against five years of history. The same read a desk risk manager starts the day with, for everyone.

This is the market's risk. Want yours?

RiskDesk connects to your brokerage or reads an uploaded portfolio, ranks these same twelve factors by how much of your risk they carry, and prices the hedges desks use against each one: what it costs per year, and what a crash becomes with it on. Get the weekly radar and early access.

How the score is built

Each factor has three to seven indicators. For every indicator we take today's value against its own five-year history: level is the percentile (40% of the score), momentum is the percentile of the one-month change (30%). Catalysts adds scheduled releases in the next ten trading days, weighted by how close they are (15%), and confirmation asks whether related factors are also elevated (15%). Indicators without data are listed as not yet measured and the weights renormalize; a factor read off a thin set of indicators is pulled toward the middle rather than allowed to top the board.

Sources

Federal Reserve (FRED), Cboe index histories, US Treasury and BLS release schedules, ICE BofA credit indices via FRED, option open interest and implied volatility from listed SPY options, and EarningsScores' own earnings data.

For information and education only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Hedges listed are the categories institutions use against each factor, not instructions; costs and payoffs depend on your holdings, account and the prices on the day. Past episodes do not predict future ones.