How it works

The 6-Layer Institutional
Earnings Intelligence Framework

Every earnings event is analyzed through six independent intelligence layers, each scoring 1-10. The weighted composite produces a final score out of 100 with a directional signal and conviction level.

Scoring methodology

BULLISH

65-100

NEUTRAL

45-64

BEARISH

30-44

AVOID

< 30

Each layer is scored independently on a 1-10 scale, then combined using proprietary weights that reflect the relative predictive power of each signal category. The framework includes automatic adjustments: a Known Headwind Discount reduces the total score when any single layer scores critically low, while a Near-52-Week-Low Snap-Back Amplifier adds points when a beaten-down stock shows strong estimate momentum.

Click each layer to explore

L1

Estimate Momentum

2x

Are analysts raising or cutting estimates?

▼

We analyze the trajectory of EPS and revenue estimates leading into earnings. This includes the number of analysts revising, the spread between high and low estimates, and how current estimates compare to prior quarters. Companies with consistent upward revisions into earnings historically outperform.

Data signals analyzed

Revision direction (up/down/flat)Analyst count changesEstimate spread widthPrior quarter comparisonEarnings surprise history

How it scores

High score (8-10): Strong upward revisions from multiple analysts, narrowing estimate spread, consistent beat history. Low score (1-3): Downward revisions, widening spread, or history of misses.

L2

Whisper Number

1.5x

What does smart money actually expect?

▼

The whisper number is the unofficial expectation that institutional traders price in — often above or below the published consensus. We infer it from the gap between recommendation sentiment and earnings surprise history. A stock with 90% buy ratings and 8 consecutive beats likely has a whisper well above consensus.

Data signals analyzed

Buy-side sentiment vs consensus gapHistorical beat rate and magnitudeRecommendation skewEarnings quality scoreInsider accumulation patterns

How it scores

High score (8-10): Strong buy consensus + serial beat history = whisper significantly above street. Low score (1-3): Mixed sentiment with history of meeting but not exceeding estimates.

L3

Technical Setup

1.5x

Is price action confirming or warning?

▼

Price doesn't lie. We compute real 50-day and 200-day moving averages, RSI-14, and aggregate technical signals to determine whether the stock is entering earnings from a position of strength or weakness. A stock above both MAs with RSI between 40-65 is in the sweet spot.

Data signals analyzed

50-day & 200-day moving averagesRSI-14 positioningPrice vs 52-week rangeVolume trendsSupport/resistance levels

How it scores

High score (8-10): Price above both MAs, RSI 40-65, near 52-week high with healthy volume. Low score (1-3): Below both MAs, RSI extended (>75 or <25), or breaking key support.

L4

Options & Sentiment

2x

What is the options market pricing in?

▼

Options data reveals what sophisticated traders are betting on. We analyze real put/call volume ratios, open interest skew, and implied volatility from Polygon. A put/call ratio below 0.7 signals bullish positioning. High IV means the market expects a big move. We cross-reference with news sentiment, social media buzz, and analyst commentary.

Data signals analyzed

Put/call volume ratioOpen interest skewImplied volatility rankNews sentiment scoringSocial media buzz metricsReddit/StockTwits activity

How it scores

High score (8-10): Low put/call ratio (<0.7), bullish open interest skew, positive news + social sentiment. Low score (1-3): High put/call ratio (>1.2), elevated IV without directional bias, negative sentiment.

L5

Institutional Flow

1.5x

Are institutions buying or selling into earnings?

▼

Follow the money. We track insider trading patterns (MSPR sentiment score), analyst upgrades and downgrades with accuracy weighting, recommendation trends, and professional analyst insights with bull/bear narratives. An analyst with a 70% success rate upgrading before earnings carries more weight than one with 40%.

Data signals analyzed

Insider sentiment (MSPR)Analyst upgrade/downgrade timingAnalyst accuracy weightingPrice target consensus from multiple firmsRecommendation trend shifts

How it scores

High score (8-10): Recent insider buying, accurate analysts upgrading, rising price targets. Low score (1-3): Insider selling, downgrades from accurate analysts, price target cuts.

L6

Macro Alignment

1.5x

Is the macro environment working for or against this stock?

▼

Even the best company can't fight the macro tide. We pull real-time data from the Federal Reserve (FRED) including GDP growth, unemployment, CPI inflation, yield curves, VIX volatility, and consumer sentiment. We also analyze sector ETF performance relative to SPY and upcoming high-impact economic events.

Data signals analyzed

GDP growth rate10Y-2Y yield curve spreadVIX volatility indexCPI / Core PCE inflationFed funds rate trajectorySector vs market performance

How it scores

High score (8-10): Positive GDP trend, low VIX (<20), normal yield curve, sector outperforming SPY. Low score (1-3): Inverted curve, VIX >25, hot inflation, sector underperforming.

📊 Historical Pattern Analysis

For every ticker scored, we pull up to 3 years of past earnings and cross-reference with actual daily price bars. This reveals how the stock actually reacted in similar past scenarios \u2014 not just whether it beat or missed, but the exact gap at open and full-day move.

Scenario Matching

Finds past quarters with similar EPS estimates and shows how they played out

Price Reaction Data

Actual opening gap and full-day move after each historical earnings report

Pattern Badges

SERIAL BEATER, CONSISTENT, MISS STREAK, BIG MOVER — auto-detected from 12Q of data

AI-Weighted

Historical patterns directly influence the AI scoring model with explicit weighting instructions

Data sources

Every score is generated from 100+ real-time data points aggregated from institutional-grade sources.

Massive-Benzinga

Earnings data, analyst ratings, news, fundamentals

Finnhub

Company profiles, real-time quotes, insider transactions

Polygon

Options flow, put/call ratios, implied volatility

FRED

GDP, inflation, yield curves, VIX, consumer sentiment

Alpha Vantage

AI sentiment analysis, economic indicators

Claude AI

Analysis engine, pattern recognition, natural language scoring

See it in action

Score any upcoming earnings event with the full 6-layer framework

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